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Improve cyclone monitoring and forecasting in India

Improve cyclone monitoring and forecasting in India

Definition : In meteorology, a cyclone is a large scale air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure.Cyclones are characterized by inward spiraling winds that rotate about a zone of low pressure. The largest low-pressure systems are polar vortices and extratropical cyclones of the largest scale.

-          A cyclone's center (often known in a mature tropical cyclone as the eye), is the area of lowest atmospheric pressure in the region.

-           Near the center, the pressure gradient force (from the pressure in the center of the cyclone compared to the pressure outside the cyclone) and the force from the Coriolis effect must be in an approximate balance, or the cyclone would collapse on itself as a result of the difference in pressure.

Steps taken by Government :

Ministry of Earth Sciences/India Meteorological Department has following projects to improve cyclone monitoring and forecasting:

-          Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) with a resolution of 23 km was adapted from NCEP, NOAA, USA.  It has been upgraded to a resolution of 12 km to provide forecast upto 7 days from 1st June, 2018.

-          The Unified Model (UM) and Unified Model Ensemble Prediction System (UMEPS) have been adapted from UK Meteorological Office (UKMO), UK, to provide forecast upto 7 days with 12 km resolution from 1st June, 2018.

-          IMD also runs cyclone specific Hurricane Weather Research & Forecast (HWRF) Model adapted from NCEP, NOAA, USA with a resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km for cyclone track and intensity prediction. A project has been undertaken to implement high resolution Ocean Atmospheric Coupled HWRF Model at IMD for cyclone forecasting.

-          IMD also makes use of NWP products prepared by some other operational NWP Centres like, ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting), GFS (NCEP), UKMO (UK Met), JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency).

A project has been undertaken for up-gradation of Decision Support System of Tropical Cyclones Warning Services.

Areas prone to Cyclone :

India is highly vulnerable to various natural hazards such as droughts, floods, heat-waves and cyclones. Around 76 percent of India’s coastline is prone to cyclones and tsunamis, while 59 percent of the country is vulnerable to earthquakes, 10 percent to floods and river erosion, and 68 percent to droughts.

According to the latest report Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas by risk analysts Maplecroft, neighboring Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country to climate change impacts in the world. According to the report, rising sea levels, severe storms and other extreme climate-related events will also threaten the future of Dhaka, the Bangladesh capital. Mumbai, Manila, Kolkata and Bangkok will have the same experience.

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