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Indian Monsoon forecast by IMD

Indian Monsoon forecast by IMD

India is likely to receive near-normal monsoon rains in 2019; according to Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) first long-range forecast for the south-west monsoon.


The June-September monsoon season is likely to see 96% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall.

The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season.

El-Nino conditions will weaken in coming months.


The south-west monsoon, which makes its onset over the country in June, irrigates over half of India’s cropland and sustains the livelihood of over 58% of its population that is dependent on agriculture.

The monsoon forecast is crucial as it directly influences the agricultural production and has a spiralling impact on inflation and growth.

The monsoon was dismal in 2018 ending with an overall deficit of 9.4%, pushing several states—including Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Gujarat, Telangana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh—into drought.


Weak El Niño conditions would persist in the monsoon season, but with reduced intensity.

El Niño is a weather phenomenon linked to below normal rains and drought.

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